Here’s an article by Harold Burger that models Bitcoin’s price using a power-law function. An exponential function is the only thing that makes sense given that Bitcoin’s price has risen by an order of magnitude once every few years. This is why it’s better to look at the long-term Bitcoin price using logarithmic chart scales rather than linear. In this article, we see the methodology, charts, and interpretations of the power-law function used in this model. It’s good food for thought. As the author puts it:
I am quite confident that in the long-term, the price will indeed evolve approximately as stated in this article. In fact, I think it is more likely for these predictions to be too low rather than too high: I believe that bitcoin has more potential upside than downside to large exogenous shocks. But this article will not try to make any predictions regarding large exogenous shocks.
I can’t help but emphatically agreeing. At some point, indeed due to ‘exogenous shocks’, the price is going to go unbelievably high unbelievably quickly. And it won’t crash as drastically as after previous price manias. Price will plateau and leave behind all those who did not allocate to Bitcoin. Then they will be compelled to adopt Bitcoin by sheer economic reality.